Today’s WASDE report was largely a non-event for the grain markets. Few material changes were made to domestic or global balance sheets, and today’s price action was largely reflective of that. In spite of the recent dryness across the corn belt, USDA remains aggressively optimistic about corn and soybean yields, with USDA modestly increasing projected corn yields to 183.6 BPA and left soybean yields unchanged at 52.3 BPA. Export sales this morning were a mixed bag. Corn sales missed expectations coming in at just 667,000 tonnes, while soybean sales were toward the upper-end of expectations at 1,474,000 tonnes. 

Corn

The elevation in domestic corn yields to 183.6 BPA pegs domestic corn production at 15.2 billion bushels - up 39 million from last month. The initial disappointment was reflected by corn futures dropping nearly 7 cents after the report’s release, but it didn’t take long for Dec corn to come back. The silver lining for corn came in the reasoning behind the 55 million bushel reduction in beginning stocks - increased export activity and corn used for ethanol production in 223/24. While this morning’s corn sales were disappointing, sales activity has picked up substantially over the past 6-8 weeks with Mexico and China serving as regular customers. So long as demand remains strong, today’s increase in production is negligible. Global balance sheets were also left virtually unchanged with the exception of ending stocks, which came in at 308.35 million tonnes (down from 310.17 million tonnes last month). While December corn dropped nearly 7 cents upon the report’s release, it managed to claw everything back and close 2 cents higher to 406.  

Soybeans

Though soybean yields were left unchanged, domestic soybean production estimates were lowered a touch to 4.586 billion bushels (4.589 billion bushels last month). USDA opting to punt on yield adjustments raised eyebrows as dryness across the corn belt over the past 2 months. Even still, it wasn’t perceived as a needle-mover on today’s settlement price. Soybean exports this week were impressive, and came in toward the upper-end of traders’ estimates at 1.474 million tonnes. While sales were slow to start the year, China and “Unknown Destinations” have ramped up significantly since July. Any impediments to Brazilian planting progress, or lack of relief in Mato Grosso’s drought conditions could send further demand to U.S. soybeans and soybean products. Like corn, the initial move lower in soybeans did not last as the November contract settled 11 ¼ cents higher to 1011 ¾. 

Wheat

There was nothing to write home about on domestic wheat alterations in today’s report. But, the global numbers had some key changes. Global production remains record-high......

Check out the full article at Blue Line Futures: https://bluelinefutures.com/2024/09/12/wasde-report-recap-2/ 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.