Soybeans

Thursday’s Recap
Thursday’s Soybean market was mixed with the March contract up by 3’4 to 1060’4. Overall volume was 277,956, with the March contract seeing 129,164 change hands. Across all maturities, open interest finished the day at a one month high of 897,704, up 12,116, or 1.37%. March open interest decreased 1,898 (0.62%), to 301,884.

Technicals
March soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday and are seeing some weakness in the overnight and early morning trade. Like corn, nearby contracts look to be in the “meat grinder zone” while the new crop contract continues to look more constructive. If the Bulls can clear the technical hurdle from 1077 1/4-1080, we could see that add a technical tailwind which could take prices towards the technically and psychologically significant $11.00 level.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1097 1/4-1100 1/4* Pivot: 1077 1/4-1080 Support: 1055-1062 1/2, 1035-1039, 1018 1/2-1025**

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Feb ZS1 1070 calls with 2,815 done and the Feb ZS1 1050 puts with volume of 3,663. Greatest volumes in March option trading were seen in the 1080 calls (2,385) and the 1050 puts (3,412). Options with the greatest open interest are the March 1100 call with 20,639, and the March 1000 put with 22,784.

Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility closed sharply lower, down by 1.0 to end the day at a one week low of 18.88. Lower by 0.0188%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 22.75%. The SVL Skew was lower with the 30-day dropping by 0.24, finishing the session at a one week low of 1.32.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money increased their net long position to 56,496 futures and options, the largest net long since November of 2023.
 

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