Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were down 1 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents following the Thursday gains. Private exporters reported a large sale of 101,600 MT of 2019/20 corn to unknown this morning under the daily reporting system. That had little impact. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 473,685 MT of corn bookings for the week ending 05/21. That came via 427,185 MT of old crop and 46,500 MT of new crop, both of which were below expectations. Corn exports from the same week were 1.06 MMT, which was down 16% wk/wk and down 38% yr/yr. The CFTC’s weekly update this afternoon showed as of May 26 corn spec traders were net short 276,203 contracts. That was 30,817 contracts more bearish than last week. It was also the largest net short position since April of last year’s record. Unwinding from that record took only 5 weeks and was accompanied by a 14.6% rally during the same time.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.25 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.30, down 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.38 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.50 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Friday trading closed the week with losses of less than 1%. Old crop futures were down 5 to 6 1/4 cents and new crop soybeans settled 1 to 4 1/4 cents lower. Soybean meal futures closed with $1.1 to $1.70/ton losses on Friday. Front month soy oil futures ended firm with losses of only 3 points. USDA’s mandatory reporting system this morning reported 132,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China, split 50/50 old/new crop. From the Export Sales report, soybean bookings totaled 847,252 MT on the week ending May 21. That was half of last week’s but double the same week last year. Bean bookings in the report were split 644k and 203k MT old and new crop. Soybean meal bookings were 127,221 MT, which was on the low end of trader estimates. The report showed soybean oil sales were well above expectations at 56,599 MT. Soy oil sales were down from last week’s sales, which were the 2nd highest for the MY, but still 61.2% above the same week from last year. The average analyst estimate ahead of Monday’s Fats and Oils report is for 182.4 mbu of beans crushed in April. Soy oil stocks are estimated to total 2.55b lbs on April 30. The Commitment of Traders report showed that on May 26 managed money funds were net long 5,813 contracts. which was down 6,251 contracts wk/wk via new sellers. Soymeal spec traders also added new sellers, to 41,775 contracts net short. In soybean oil, spec traders were 3,984 contracts net long on reduced OI.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.40 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.43 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.45 1/2, down 5 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.51 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $283.20, down $1.10

Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $27.38, down $0.01

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The U.S. wheat markets continued the gains from yesterday closing the week 2.2 to 5.8% higher. KC was up the most on Friday closing 6 to 6 1/2 cents higher. For July that was a 5.8% gain on the week. SRW wheat futures closed 4 1/4 to 6 1/4 cents higher, up 2.5% from Fri to Fri. July spring wheat futures gained 5 3/4 cents on Friday for a week’s move of 2.2%. The other front months closed the Friday session with 4 1/4 to 5 cent gains. USDA reported old crop wheat sales for the week ending May 21 at 209,783 MT. New crop wheat sales from the report were above trader expectations, with 496,539 MT sold. Shipments from the report added 561,235 MT to the accumulated 23.725 MMT. That is 90% of the May forecast with 2 weeks left, commitments are already above the forecast. In the weekly CoT report, managed money were net buyers of SRW wheat wk/wk reducing their net short to 12,204 contracts. In HRW wheat managed money was 25,743 contracts net short on 05/26. Funds added 12,226 shorts wk/wk. MPLS wheat spec traders were shown slightly less net short at 22,918 contracts. SovEcon sees 2020/21 wheat exports at 36.8 MMT for Russia. If it plays out, that would be 3 MMT above 19/20 and 2nd highest exports for the nation all time. USDA’s forecast for Russian wheat exports is 35 MMT.

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.20 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.70 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.25, up 5 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle futures traded $1.37 to $1.75 lower on Friday. For June contracts that wasn’t enough to erase previous moves, as June cattle closed 2.5% higher on the week. From Friday to Friday August feeders gained $6.07, but closed the day with 15 cent losses going into the weekend. The other front months closed 50 to 92 cents lower, after rallying back from triple digit losses at midday. The May 28 CME Feeder Cattle Index was $2.34 higher to $129.36. Cash sales for Friday were limited at $118-$120, sales this week were mostly $115 to $120 with the bulk at $120. The weekly CoT update showed spec traders were buyers of fat cattle contracts wk/wk. On May 26, their net position was 14,977 contracts long. Feeder cattle specs were also net long, but only by 654 contracts. In USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, beef bookings were 11,483 MT. That was the highest since the week ending April 9, but 2,500 MT below the pre-shutdown 2020 average. Weekly beef exports in the report were 11,270 MT, which put 2020 accumulated exports at 319,678 MT (+10% yr/yr). Friday’s boxed beef prices were lower with Choice at $363.34 cwt. and Select at $340.07 cwt. for wholesale. Choice beef rib primals were at $500.25 cwt., loins were down to $492.19. FI cattle slaughter brought is estimated at 524,000 head through Saturday. The week’s total was only 31,000 head below last week despite the holiday. USDA estimates YTD slaughter running behind year ago 6.9% at 12.657 million head.

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $99.725, down $1.750,

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $99.600, down $1.575,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $101.425, down $1.375,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.350, down $0.150

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.750, down $0.500

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.025, down $0.750

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures rallied back from midday losses and closed $0.95 to $1.70 higher. Save for June hogs which ended Friday’s session with a 7 cent loss. The CME Lean Hog index was up 42 cents on May 27, to $62.95. USDA National Average Base Hog price was $37.45 on Friday, down by $0.37. The average base hog price for the WCB region was $37.98. Commitment of Traders data showed that on Tuesday lean hog spec traders were 903 contracts more long for the week to 10,273 on net. Managed money open interest was up 4,041 contracts to 82,825. In the Export Sales report from USDA, 20,579 MT of pork was sold. Unshipped sales were down on the week at 289,785 MT due to a solid 34,470 MT of pork shipments. Total shipments for the year are up to 827,529 MT. Total commitments are 40.6% ahead of last year’s pace. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $88.20 on Friday, down by $1.26. FI hog slaughter for the week through Saturday is estimated at 1.97m head. YTD slaughter is 52.1m head compared to last year’s 52.78 million.

Jun 20 Hogs closed at $56.850, down $0.075,

Jul 20 Hogs closed at $57.025, up $1.375

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $56.725, up $1.700

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month cotton futures came back from midday lows and ended the session within a dime on either side of UNCH. July and October futures were 2 and 7 points higher, while Dec through May ’21 closed 4 to 7 points lower. The USDA’s holiday delayed Export Sales report noted 44,641 RBs of cotton sold on the week ending 05/21. That was down 65% wk/wk and 85% below the same week last MY. Of the week’s sales, 58,556 RBs were to China. China has committed to 3.172m RBs for the MY so far, which is 19% of the U.S. total 2019/20 cotton commits. Total MY shipments were up to 11.08m RBs through week 43, which is 11% above last year’s pace, and 84% of last year’s total with 11 weeks left. In the weekly update from CFTC, managed money funds were less short on May 26. The wk/wk change came via both new buyers and closed shorts. The report showed cotton spec traders were 6,859 contracts net short, down from 9,684 last week. The week’s sales through Thursday on The Seam were 2,168 bales at a wtd average price of 49.88 cents/lb. The 05/28 Cotlook A index was UNCH at 66.15c/lb. FSA’s AWP is 47.48 cents/lb, and the LDP for the week is 4.52 cents/lb.

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 57.59, up 2 points,

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 57.27, up 7 points

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 57.48, down 6 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 58.48, down 4 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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