SP 500 Futures Analysis for 3/30/25

The chart is key to this analysis.

(ESM25) 

We just finished our latest video (The 46th) on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. In this one we cover what is happening in the SP Futures along with the Grains. It doesn't matter if you trade these markets or not, all the rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You can find it here.

ESM25

From last week,

The key long term 23.6% level back to the 2022 low at 5546.00 has produced a $200 rally so far. The front contract is now June, This week it hit 38.2% at 5760.00 on the continuation chart a few times, so we will also watch what 38.2% is on the June chart. This level is 5815.00, a trade up to this area and a close back below 38.2% on the continuation chart at 5760.00 can quickly send this market back to the low. The idea of a run back at the highs from the 23.6% level at 5546.00 remains intact until this level is taken out. All of the key levels Above/Below on the continuation remain the same except for the 200 day average that is now 5781.00.
 

Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week again.

They had a $280 rally from the long term 23.6% level at 5546.00 on the nearby chart, however as we pointed out in the last update, June is now the lead contract and we would have to watch the 38.2% retracement back to its contract high at 5815.00. It had one close above it (it always needs 2 to violate a key level) and the next day it was right back below it and closed slightly below the 38.2% level on the nearby chart at 5760.00 and the quick break from it has been over $200 so far.

A 38.2% retracement should send the market to a new low to keep the current trend intact (ONE44 38.2% rule) and a failure to do so in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull run (ONE44 78.6% rule). Having said that, we will be watching the 78.6% retracement on the nearby chart at 5577.00, there is also a major Gann square at 5566.00 for added support. This will be the key area for the next week. Holding this area can send this market sharply higher. It has already hit the 78.6% level on the June chart at 5617.00. A failure to turn higher from this area will have us looking for the long term swing point at 5153.50.

Use 5577.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the first target on a rally from a 78.6% retracement is 78.6% of where it just came from, with the current low this is 5790.00, it is also the 200 day average. This level will move down with any new low next week. The long term target area is the 5993.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the ATH at 6025.00. Any rally that fails to get above the 5706.00 major Gann square is a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.

Below it, the long term target is the long term swing point at 5153.50, this is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. Before then there are two major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below at 5426.00 and 5283.75.

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