“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B. Swift

​7/15/2025

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Live Cattle:

Current price action, and today's close, lead me to anticipate a new contract high.  I am unsure whether cash will trade higher, or not, but if futures do set a new contract high, I recommend laying off every newly acquired head while the futures price is at the very least, the highest price achievable so far into the future.  This is a sales solicitation.  If a new contract high is not made, it will take a move under the July 10th low per respective contract month to suggest a top is in.  Futures traders are not expected to push futures to the levels of cash. The current haircut being offered is believed a hefty safety net to futures traders that is believed having some tendency to remain supportive, simply due to the discount.  Were cash to drop suddenly, or even in a large amount, the futures are already discounted to such an extent the impact may be muted at the onset. Similar to what was seen on Monday's opening.  As severe as the lower trade was, the basis was already so wide, it seemed to mute the selling.  

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Feeder Cattle:

Backgrounders continue to reap the benefits of cattle feeders desire to feed cattle at any cost and a futures trader willing to assume your risk at an even basis, if not negative with today's close. Although backgrounders remain at risk the same aspects as does every other sector, the ability to manage that risk is the difference between night and day.  Hindsight, greed, bettin' on the come, and maybe a little in over the head with input costs, are believed keeping a great deal of producers from spending 3% to 4% of the value of the contract to maintain the 97% to 96% of the value. Hindsight, and the previous recommendations to sell the calls against long puts, has created some reservation to maintain, or apply risk management tools that are available. Were fats, or even feeders to make a new contract high, I recommend you take full advantage of.     ​

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​Corn:

There is not much to discuss in grains.

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Energy:

​Energy was soft with the products a little higher.  I anticipate energy to continue higher. ​

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Bonds:

Wednesday's PPI report is expected to be in line with today's CPI report, reflecting the persistent inflation.  Bonds were lower and are believed to be resuming a previous down trend.  Lower bonds is higher interest rates.  The US dollar moved sharply higher today with the S&P stock index hitting another new historical high in both cash and futures.  The President's tariff actions are creating exceptional volatility, along with helping to form new historical highs in a few commodity markets.  While some can appreciate greatly from, others are left to deal with the consequences of. I anticipate his volatile actions to produce more volatility in price action of commodity markets.  Therefore, as prices are high for some and low for others, consider what you may need in the future that is at a low price and what you may need to sell in the future at currently high prices.    ​​​

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.