Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                           7/15/2025

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Daily ZSX5: 

November beans traded both sides of unchanged on Tuesday to settle lower on the day at 1001 ¾.  Nov Beans did break the $10 level on Sunday night’s trade but did not see any large stops or follow through selling below that level with a low of 998 ¼. As far as support goes for Nov beans we have 994 ½ which was the April 10^th low then followed by 971 ¼ which was the April 9^th low. We also have a gap above the market at 1044 ¼ so it will be interesting to see if we can close it and see how the market acts around that area.  Taking a look at the moving averages which are all turned down on the daily charts we have the 100 day moving average sitting at (1028) 200 day (1030 ¾) 50 day (1034 ½) 21 day (1032 ½) and lastly the 14 day at (1020 ½) (see chart below).

Weekly ZSX5:

November beans were able to take out last week's low of 1002 ¼ Sunday night and the psychological $10 but have recovered slightly from those levels.  I am still looking at the April low of 971 ¼ of importance as well as the 1044 ¼ gap we have on the daily charts. The weekly moving averages are sitting at (1034) for the 14 day, the 21 day (1028 ½) and 50 day (1033) and lastly the 100 day at (1104 ¼) (see chart below

Fundamentals: 

Soybeans crop ratings improved last week to 70% good/excellent compared to the 66% last week. With the July WASDE holding no major surprises from Friday we continue to monitor long term weather forecasts for August as well as any updates on trade deals. Private analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his bean yield up 1 bu to 52.5 bu. Soybean oil continues to gain on meal even with the record fund short in meal. We will have to watch to see if we get an unwinding in that spread.

Trade Ideas: 

Look for selling opportunities and watch the 1040-1044 area in Nov beans.

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn made contract lows (407 ½) yesterday before clawing back to close higher and also closed up 1 ¾ in today's session at 419 ¾.  It will be interesting to see if we can hold the $4 level given the favorable pollination weather but we also have trade deals to worry about.  Corn is looking like its facing an uphill battle with all the moving averages turning lower and a gap from 429-433 on the daily charts.  As far as the moving averages for Dec corn we have the 14 day at (421 ¾) the 21 day at (427) 50 day (436 ¼) 100 day (445 ¼) and lastly the 200 day moving average at (446 ½). (See chart below).

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the longer-term weekly charts of Dec corn we have broken last week's low of 416½ and made contract lows of 407 ½ which I am using as support for now. Last week’s high was 429 ¾ so getting above that we would close the gap on the daily charts in my opinion.  As far as the moving averages look like on the weekly charts the 14 day is at (440 ½) the 21 day (444 ¼) the 50 day (445 ½) and lastly the 100 day moving average at (466 ½) (See chart below). 

Fundamentals: 

Corn was rated 74% good to excellent as of July 13^th which was rated the same as last week's crop progress report.  With what has been pretty much ideal weather pollination we will focus on the longer-range weather forecasts for corn.  Private analysist Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his U.S. corn yield up 2 bu to 182 bu now.  He has also raised his Brazilian corn production up 2 MMT to 135 MMT.  With the Aug 1^st deadline approaching on the trade deals we will see if we can get a temporary bullish twist on the corn market if that gets solved.

Trade Ideas:

If looking for some upside you can buy a Dec 430-480 call spread for 10 cents that expires November 21^st. 

Daily ZWU5:

September wheat closed the day down 3 ½ cents at 538. Looking at the daily moving averages on the wheat charts we have the 14 day at (546 ½) and 21 day (553 ½) the 50 day at (551) and lastly the 100 day at (564 ½). We have support at 534 ¾ which is the June 30^th low. (see chart below).

Weekly ZWU5:

Looking longer term at the weekly charts in September wheat we have support at last week's low at 534 ¾. As far as resistance goes on the weekly charts, we have resistance at the 14 day moving average (554 ¾) the 21 day at (562 ½) and last week’s high of 557 ½ (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

The USDA did also raise all wheat production to 1.929 bb on Friday. Spring wheat was rated 54% good to excellent compared to 50 % last week.

Trade Ideas:

Buying the Sep 550-580 call spread for 6 ½ cents of risk that expire September 22.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

jwiedeman@walshtrading.com

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